**Sure, I'll Call You for Coffee Sometime...**

By: George Argyropoulos

a/k/a Dragon_Bane

I always call Kixeye math Black Magic. It really isn't, but it sounds fun. That said... Recently I had someone send me a stressed out message not understanding why I suggested (in comms) a Sea Serpents crew for the FM when (they alleged) that the accuracy of the missiles in the target were 100% accurate and there have been a lot of people stating that Evade doesn't matter anymore.

I have a much easier time articulating an explanation in an article or post that I do on comms or Team Speak, but I got the gist of it explained so that he had a grasp of the interaction between Accuracy and Evade.

We then got into the realm of 100+% Accuracy theory and I had a harder time trying to explain why evade still mattered- and remain succinct doing it. Particularly when he started asking about 200-1,000% accuracy realm. Obviously, this gave me an idea for a quick and dirty article.

First we have to understand each of these mechanics and

*then*understand how they interact.

**Accuracy:**

We'll start with accuracy because it is the 'easier' of the two to explain and follow.

Unlike much of the math in the game, Accuracy is calculated in an additive fashion, which is much easier to calculate (and follow). After converting the percentage bonuses to decimals, you can use the following formula to calculate your final accuracy numbers. Where x and y are percentage-based Accuracy bonuses.:

Accuracy = Base Accuracy * (1 + x + y)

So, for example, The Scoria Missile has a Base Accuracy of 100%. Guided missile system gives you 50% accuracy. Put it on a hull with an Accuracy boost like a Battle Cruiser and add another 40%...

Accuracy = 100 * (1 + .5 + .4)

Accuracy = 100 * (1.9)

Accuracy = 190%

Another example, using a missile like the Strike Missile D51-B, which on the other hand has a Base Accuracy of only 60%. Using the same set-up...

Accuracy = 60 * (1 + .5 + .4)

Accuracy = 60 * (1.9)

Accuracy = 114%

Obviously, Accuracy can increase beyond 100%. This really isn't important until Evade comes into the mix.

**Evade:**

Evade, unlike Accuracy, is calculated in a bit less of a straight-forward method. It makes for a bit of complexity, making it a little bit harder to follow. Evade is calculated multiplicatively. This is apparent when we look at the calculation used for Evade. After converting the percentage bonuses to decimals, you can use the following formula to calculate your Evade where x, y and z are percentage-based Evade.:

Evade = 1 - [(1 - x) * (1-y) * (1-z)]

So, using a BC again (30% native), using Guidance Scrambler III (49.5%), an Evade Upgrade (18.6%) and 1 panel of D5-E (12.4%).

So we start with the BC and its base evade stat of 30%:

Evade = 1- [(1-.3)] = .3 = 30%

Then the GSIII:

Evade = 1 - [(1-.3) * (1-.495)] = .6465 = 64.7%

Evade Upgrade:

Evade = 1 - [(1-.3) * (1-.495) * (1-.186)] = .7122 = 71.2%

And finally the D5-E

Evade = 1 - [(1-.3) * (1-.495) * (1-.186) * (1-.124)] = .7479 = 74.8%

**We're going to go off on a tangent for a minute. Now you might notice something, particularly on that last addition. If you'll note above, the D5-E is listed as an evade of 12.4%, yet when added in the last step above the Evade only increased from 71.2% to 74.8%. This is what Kixeye refers to as Diminishing Returns. Because you can not get to 100% or more on multiplicative calculations, you are gaining less and less for each % increase in these calculations. So the closer your calculation is to 100% the less you will gain for each additional percentage increase you add.**

We've now covered how to calculate both Accuracy and Evade. Now we have to gain an understanding of how these two mechanics interact.

**Kixeye Black Magic:**

When we calculate the interaction between Accuracy and Evade we are using the following calculation in which we, again, convert our percentages to decimals in order to do our calculations.:

Calculated Hit Percentage = Accuracy * (1-Evade)

So in using the above examples (190% Scoria BC/ 75% Evade BC) we would have this:

Calculated Hit Percentage = 1.90 * (1-.7479)

Calculated Hit Percentage = 47.9%

Interesting now, isn't it? That 190% accuracy missile would only hit ~48% of the time? Yup. So now, knowing how the above calculation works, and the formulas used, you can take theoretical accuracies and see what the minimum evade will be required to offset that accuracy.

I hope this clears up Accuracy, Evade and how they interact for some players. Have fun pirates!

But...will the targets in the January event be using accuracy weapons as opposed to splash(AOE) weapons? Thats the million dollar question. I think probably, as you would need a large splash area, and a fast projectile speed, if you are shooting at a 65 combat speed ship.

ReplyDeleteThen again, kixeye might make it AOE, and huge damage, so if you stop you die.

If you go by the draconian mining bases...siege...there are both...splash and acuraccy driven weapons....have not seen a ballistic splash weapon in there....radioactive is splash but some are acuracy driven also to build the splash result....

DeleteWhat are you talking about? All the ballistics in the Draconian Mines are splash. Grab a bunch of weak ships in there and test it out. They all die at the same time from one shot.

DeleteI really appreciate it when others can explain the complexities of the game in simple terms without being overly verbose... just saying

ReplyDeleteThanks for taking the time to put this together it is helpful!

ReplyDeleteThanks George. I've managed to recreate your calculation in excel so I could see what sort of calculated hit percentages would look like with some of my more used current ships that have a lot less evade than your BC example.

ReplyDeleteCalculated hit percentages (using your scoria missile example) look terrible unless I get over 47.5% evade. 47.5% evade gave a 99.75% hit percentage. I doubt a 0.25% loss of hit accuracy is worth the effort :(

Thanks for explaining stuff. You're a nice bloke!