While my initial reaction to some of these COVID "theories" was mild amusement, it has now turned to something more along the lines of stunned disbelief.
To me, this is just math. Can this many people not understand simple mathematics? How are people taking positions wholly against something they can calculate themselves? That turns into an interesting discussion... part of it seems to be that people inherently dislike doing math with large numbers, but a troubling amount also seems to be that people are basing their decisions more on party politics than pure simple logic.
So I decided to address some of the more egregious things I've seen to hopefully help clarify, at least the simple math, for people and give a bit of context for what those numbers signify. The two things I'm going to review are the seemingly top partisan talking points on both sides of the isle. One has to be fair, no? Up first is the one I see floated generally by my conservative friends - Death rate!
Death Rate
The survival rate is 97.97%!!!!
COVID death rate is inflated, this isn't even as bad as the flu!
You don't need to wear masks, it's not as deadly as the media are making it out to be!
Only .03% of the population die!
Ok, so let's start with our ingredients (as of 8/11/20):
US Population : 328,000,000
Confirmed COVID Cases : 5,064,171
COVID Deaths : 162,407
Saturation %: 70%*
Most of that is self-explanatory, but I'll touch on the saturation rate. This is, in simplest form, where we would have to be to have 'herd' immunity. That's not 100% accurate, and not the exact terminology I want to use, but it's good enough for this exercise.
The death rate and 'survival' rate are the same thing. You can't survive something if you haven't been infected by it. Also, the death rate from something is not calculated by the whole of the population - that is a different calculation - % chance, you know, like what are the chances I'm going to die by a lightning strike. That's a broad overview of a chance percentage, not a rate of death.
So, the death rate/survival rate of COVID in the US is as follows:
162,407 / 5,064,171 = 0.032 * 100 = 3.2%
That is the death rate of COVID in the US currently. That is the survival rate of COVID in the US currently. This is simple math, but let's look behind the numbers with regard to why this makes this virus so dangerous.
Remember that saturation percentage? This is where you get some perspective and context. Saturation incidence aka saturation rate is what is colloquially referred to as 'herd immunity'. Herd immunity can be reached when a sufficient number of people in the population have recovered (or are vaccinated) from a disease and have developed antibodies against future infection. We are not going to even calculate out to 'if' the entire population got infected. Just 70% of it.
A saturation of 70% means 229,600,000 people.
328,000,000 * .70 = 229,600,000
(To clarify the math if someone is curious 70% is .70)
This is the amount of people that have to be infected in order to reach 'saturation'. (The reality is that the spread would slow down the higher the rate goes, but again, we want simple for this exercise.) We then have a death rate of 3.2%, so we can now extrapolate how many people would die if we just ignored everything, took no measures and let this rampage right along:
229,600,000 *.032 = 7,347,200 people
You are reading that correctly. That is over 7 million people. Dead.
Oh! You say the death numbers are inflated? It's not that deadly? Ok. Cut them in half.
81,203 / 5,064,171 = 0.016 * 100 = 1.6%
229,600,000 * .016 = 3,673,600 people
Even if there is a conspiracy so huge that the number of dead is half of what is reported, that still extrapolates to over 3.5 million people. Dead. Just to reach a 70% saturation point. Do you now have some context and perspective?
This is of course barring anything that would artificially inflate the infected number, like say... a vaccine. But we can have the discussion about its importance another time.... now we have the one my liberal friends like to tout... Help flatten the curve so this gets over faster!!
Flattening the Curve Hastens 'Return to Normal'
Wear your mask stupid, it'll be over quicker!
Just follow the orders and we'll be back to normal faster!
Following the rules will shorten this!
This one is a tad bit harder to understand, but simpler to explain because one can do it visually. To begin, understand that 'flattening the curve' is meant to only manage the spread of the virus so that the capacity of the health care system is not overwhelmed. This allows better care and presumably a lower mortality rate. It is not meant to eradicate the virus.
What it absolutely does not do is shorten any of this. If anything, it will lengthen it. The math itself for this is, in a word, annoying, but the graphical representation is easy-peasy. Essentially, given a static mass under a curve, if you adjust one axis, the other is affected, thus if time is the X axis and cases is the Y axis, if you flatten Y so it doesn't spike (flattening the curve) the x axis HAS to lengthen!!! If we do succeed in flattening the curve, barring a vaccine, it will take LONGER for it to 'be over'.
This is why there is such a push for the vaccine. It will artificially manipulate the infected total, both dramatically lowering the death rate and increasing our saturation percentage bringing the pandemic to heel. And that's it! I'm all mathed out! I hope this helps either clarify the underlying math for some people or gives some context and perspective to others.
* Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19
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Side note: If anyone wants to read up on a study that specifically tested masks (and also notes cloth masks aren't too good for the wearer) I'll leave this here. Maybe we'll do another one of these on masks soon.
Influenza Virus Aerosols in Human Exhaled Breath: Particle Size, Culturability, and Effect of Surgical Masks
